The decision to grant parole is, by definition, discretionary. But it is a decision that Thomas Patton, a former chairman of the parole board in Nevada, stresses is conducted through a “very comprehensive review,” weighing 11 largely objective factors.
Between -1 and +2 points are allocated for each criterion. Inmates exceeding five points are classified as a “medium” or “high” risk and are unlikely to be granted parole. Score fewer than five points, and odds swing the other way. In 2013, Simpson scored three points, falling into the “low risk” category. He seems likely to do well again in 2017.
Here are the 11 factors SI.com says will be considered, as well as Simpson’s score in each:
Age at the time of first arrest (0 points)
Prior probation or parole revocation (0 points)
Employment history immediately before arrest (0 points)
Offense leading to current or prior convictions (2 points)
History of drug or alcohol abuse (0 points or 1 point)
Gender (1 point)
Current age (-1 point)
Active gang membership (0 points)
Completed education, vocational or treatment program during prison term (-1 point or 0 points)
Disciplinary write-ups (-1 point)
Custody level (0 points)
Simpson’s final tally on this analysis comes to between 0 and 2 points, making him a low risk and a good candidate for parole. SI quotes Las Vegas criminal defense attorney Daniel Hill as saying, “He’s the kind of person who gets paroled. He has done a significant amount of time and, by all accounts, hasn’t caused any problems [while in prison].”